This policy paper provides scenarios of energy use and GHG emissions from the transport sector up to 2050, considering Brazil´s national pledges and climate action. Two scenarios are developed based on different political commitments.
The results show that if Brazil pursues highly ambitious and concrete mitigation goals, it is possible to reduce 2050 emissions by up to 25% compared to 2005 levels (against a 101% increase in the conservative scenario). Also, the cost analysis evidences that cars, trucks and buses electrifi cation are mitigation actions with interesting prospects for 2050. However, barriers related to financing, concession models and standards and regulations for new technologies and business models need to be overcome.